Andy Burnham declares Labour’s ‘final chance to change’ after landslide Makerfield by‑election win over Reform UK

## Andy Burnham Calls Makerfield Victory a Turning Point

Labour’s Andy Burnham celebrated a “turning point” for the nation following a sweeping win in the Makerfield by‑election, a result he says could force Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step aside. Burnham told supporters that the local‑election defeat for Labour was “a loud cry for change” and that the by‑election offers “the final chance to change” the country’s political direction.

> “We must hear it, we must act upon it, and we must get it right. There will be no second chance, but from this result tonight we can build a new politics based on unity and hope, turning away from the divisive path we have seen in the United States,” Burnburn said.

## Analysis from Former YouGov President Peter Kellner

Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov, posted a detailed analysis of the Makerfield result on his Substack. He noted that two years ago Reform UK captured 31.8 % of the vote in Makerfield – the sixth‑highest share for the party nationally – and that the constituency was a key target for Reform ahead of the next general election.

Kellner argued that Reform UK’s ambitions to win “dozens, let alone hundreds, of seats” depend on victories in seats like Makerfield, and that the party’s failure here is a serious setback.

## Tactical Voting and the Decline of Reform UK

The result follows a pattern of tactical voting against Reform UK in recent by‑elections. In May 2023, Reform won Runcorn & Helsby, raising hopes of capturing three parliamentary seats. However, it fell short in Caerphilly (lost to Plaid Cymru in the Welsh Senedd), Gorton and Denton (lost to the Greens), and now Makerfield.

Neal Lawson, director of the progressive think‑tank Compass, described Burnham’s win as “a remarkable victory for the only Labour politician who wins both working‑ and cosmopolitan‑class voters.” He said the result provides a “mandate for wholesale change” – including electoral reform, public ownership of essential utilities, and an end to Labour’s internal factionalism.

## Swing Figures and Vote Shares

Luke Tryl of the More in Common pollster reported a 23‑point swing from Reform UK to Labour in the six weeks between the local elections and the Makerfield by‑election. He added that the left‑ and right‑bloc sizes remained similar to those in the 2024 general election, with the movement occurring within, not between, the blocs.

The Conservative Party, which finished fourth with 2 % of the vote (down from 11 % and third place in the 2022 general election), issued a statement saying the result shows how “unpopular Labour has become.” The party also warned that Burnham’s victory is “disastrous for Reform,” which had earmarked Makerfield as a top target.

## Immediate Aftermath

As Burnham prepared to deliver his victory speech, two independent candidates interrupted him, prompting Burnham to leave the stage. He declined questions from reporters, later saying he was heading for a pint, according to Manchester Evening News reporters Charlotte Hall and Iram Ramzan.

## Implications for Labour Leadership

Political commentators suggest the result will trigger a leadership contest within Labour, potentially sidelining the government’s agenda as internal battles intensify. A senior Labour MP, quoted a week after the campaign launch, predicted Burnham would secure a majority “almost double” that of his rival Josh Simons.

Burnham’s 9,800‑plus majority has been described as “seismic” and a proof‑of‑concept for winning on traditionally hostile ground. The result also saw Reform UK’s vote share dip to just over 3 % – its poorest performance since the 2022 general election – while the Liberal Democrats fell to a historic low of 0.4 % in a by‑election.

## Expert Commentary from Sir John Curtice

BBC elections analyst Prof Sir John Curtice cautioned that Burnham’s victory does not guarantee a dramatic shift in Labour’s national poll standing. He highlighted two key factors behind the win: (1) the willingness of voters who might otherwise have supported Reform UK or Restore Britain to back Burnham, and (2) Burnham’s ability to appeal simultaneously to traditional Labour supporters and those eager to see Starmer replaced.

Curtice questioned whether the “Burnham formula” can be replicated elsewhere once Burnham becomes a national figure, noting that his Manchester‑centric popularity may not translate across the whole of the UK.

## The Road Ahead

Labour’s next steps will likely involve negotiating an “orderly and managed” handover from Starmer, as outlined by Labour MP Louise Haigh on the BBC. With the progressive vote consolidated and former Reform voters shifting back to Labour, many observers now view Burnham as a formidable contender for the party’s top job – and, potentially, for the premiership.

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Key Takeaways - Andy Burnham frames the Makerfield win as Labour’s “final chance to change.” - Reform UK’s share fell to just over 3 %, its worst night since the 2022 general election. - A 23‑point swing from Reform UK to Labour was recorded between the local elections and the by‑election. - The Conservative Party fell to 2 % of the vote, finishing fourth. - Political analysts see the result as a possible catalyst for a Labour leadership challenge to Keir Starmer.

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