Gulf States: The Burden of Confrontation and Disappointment with US-Iran Deal Outcomes

## Introduction Gulf states are currently bearing the full burden of confrontation with Iran, despite their repeated efforts to avoid being drawn into regional military escalation. These nations have suffered severe losses from ongoing Iranian attacks using drones and ballistic missiles, in addition to the repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which posed an existential threat to the Gulf economic model built on stability and foreign investment. Growing concerns are emerging that the temporary US-Iran deal will not deliver the desired Gulf security, with no concrete guarantees in place to halt Iranian threats against regional countries.

## Impact of Military Escalation on Gulf Security and Economic Model Gulf states have faced unprecedented impacts on both security and economic fronts over the past three months of military escalation with Iran, becoming the most affected party in the war despite not participating directly in combat operations. Iranian attacks using drones and ballistic missiles targeted vital facilities in several Gulf countries, including oil infrastructure and logistics hubs, disrupting part of global energy supplies and raising shipping insurance costs in the region. The intermittent closure of the Strait of Hormuz during peak escalation periods also directly impacted global trade flows, as the strait carries nearly 20% of global daily oil supplies, increasing pressure on the Gulf economic model based on energy exports and foreign investment attraction. Estimates indicate that direct losses for Gulf states from Iranian attacks and the strait closure repercussions have reached tens of billions of dollars to date, not counting indirect losses from declining investment and reduced growth rates. These repercussions have also prompted a full reassessment of national security strategies for Gulf states, which found themselves facing direct threats they were not fully prepared for, despite decades of security alliances with global powers.

## Outcomes of the US-Iran Deal: Disappointed Gulf Hopes Recent leaks about the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, scheduled to be signed on June 15, 2026, reveal clauses aimed at enforcing a 60-day ceasefire, to be followed by permanent settlement negotiations covering the uranium enrichment file. While this temporary agreement represents a first step to de-escalation, it has sparked widespread disappointment among Gulf states, which were not included in the negotiations and whose core security concerns are not addressed. A senior Gulf source told Reuters that de-escalation "is positive, but the situation is unambiguously worse than it was before the war", noting that the deal does not address Iranian military capabilities or regional militia networks that pose a direct threat to Gulf security. Analysts believe the deal completely ignores Gulf demands related to limits on Iran's ballistic missile program, the main tool Iran uses to threaten regional countries, in addition to the absence of any guarantees to stop future Iranian attacks on Gulf facilities. The deal has also raised questions about the US role as a guarantor of Gulf security, especially since clauses related to deterring future Iranian attacks on Washington's allies in the region are absent.

## Shift in Gulf States' Strategic Calculations The disappointment with US-Iran deal outcomes has accelerated a deep strategic shift in Gulf states' positions, as they begin to move away from full reliance on the US security umbrella and seek their own alternative deterrence options. After decades of depending on US protection to contain Iranian threats, Gulf leaders have realized that Washington does not prioritize Gulf security in its negotiations with Tehran, and the recent deal includes no guarantees to stop Iranian threats against the region. According to high-level Gulf sources, Gulf states have started direct consultations with Iran to avoid any future escalation, despite mutual distrust between the two sides, and are seeking to enhance security cooperation with other regional powers to fill the security gap resulting from declining trust in US protection. Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East researcher, told Reuters: "Gulf states are increasingly realizing that Iran is here to stay, and it is still capable of destabilizing the regional order, and they cannot rely on the US or Israel to provide security or stability". These shifts have also prompted Gulf states to accelerate efforts to diversify their security alliances, including enhanced cooperation with Asian and European countries to ensure alternative security guarantees in case Iranian threats continue.

## Risks of Continued Absence of Security Guarantees for Gulf States Significant risks to Gulf security are emerging today with the continued absence of concrete guarantees to stop Iranian threats, especially as Iran continues to develop its military capabilities, including ballistic missiles and drones used in recent attacks on Gulf facilities. The failure to address the file of Iran-backed regional militia networks in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon also represents a continuing threat to Gulf security, as these militias are used as tools to destabilize the region without Iran bearing direct responsibility. Hassan Hassan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that "the memorandum of understanding will likely not address the core security concerns of Gulf states related to Iran's offensive military capabilities, especially missiles, drones and regional militia networks". The continued absence of Gulf states from permanent settlement negotiations with Iran also increases the risk of continued military escalation in the future, especially if current negotiations fail to make tangible progress on the uranium enrichment file, which could push Iran to resume full enrichment activities and increase threats against Gulf states. Estimates indicate that the continuation of this situation could lead to a significant decline in the Gulf economic model based on stability, with higher costs of insuring investments and reduced flows of foreign capital to the region, negatively impacting the economic growth rates of Gulf states in the long term.