Boulos' Plan to Unite Libya's Power Centers: Benefits and Risks

## Introduction

Since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been locked in a fragmented power struggle between rival armed groups and competing political institutions. In June 2026, Masad Boulos, a senior Middle‑East adviser to former President Donald Trump, announced a bold initiative to merge the country’s split institutions under a single executive authority. The proposal places Saad al‑Haftr, the son of warlord Khalifa al‑Haftr, at the head of a presidential council while keeping Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh as prime minister in Tripoli. Simultaneously, the plan encourages major U.S. oil firms—ConocoPhillips and Chevron—to expand their investments, aiming to double Libya’s oil output to three million barrels per day by the end of the decade. This article provides a balanced comparison of the plan’s potential benefits and its inherent risks, drawing on statements from officials, expert commentary, and United Nations assessments.

## Background of Libya’s Fragmented Conflict

Libya’s post‑Gaddafi landscape is characterized by two dominant power centers. In the east, the Khalifa al‑Haftr‑aligned militia controls a swath of the coastal plain, while the UN‑recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli, led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh since 2021, relies on a coalition of western militias. The split has kept oil production well below its potential—hovering around 1.2 million barrels per day—despite the country holding Africa’s largest proven reserves. International sanctions, lingering tribal rivalries, and frequent skirmishes have discouraged foreign investment. UN‑led attempts to hold parliamentary elections have repeatedly stalled due to armed groups fearing loss of influence and revenue. Boulos’ proposal therefore seeks to break this stalemate by integrating both military and civilian actors into a unified governmental framework, while leveraging U.S. oil capital to revitalize the sector.

## Details of Boulos’ Plan

According to Boulos, the strategy rests on three pillars: (1) creating a presidential council headed by Saad al‑Haftr, with Dbeibeh remaining prime minister; (2) consolidating security and financial agencies under a single central authority; and (3) securing new investment deals with American oil majors. Both ConocoPhillips and Chevron signed agreements with Libya in 2026, laying the groundwork for expanded exploration and production. The plan projects that, with sufficient capital inflows, oil output could rise to three million barrels per day by the decade’s end—a figure that would place Libya among the world’s top producers. Achieving this level would require billions of dollars in infrastructure upgrades, including port modernisation and pipeline security, as well as transparent revenue‑sharing mechanisms.

## Anticipated Advantages

1. Economic Stabilisation – Higher oil revenues would boost the state budget, enabling reconstruction projects and job creation. 2. Improved Security – A unified security apparatus could reduce inter‑militia clashes and provide a coordinated response to internal threats. 3. Foreign Investment Attraction – Clear, US‑backed contracts are likely to restore confidence among international investors, potentially drawing capital from Europe and Asia. 4. International Legitimacy – Aligning the political transition with UN election timelines may lift sanctions and improve diplomatic standing. 5. Financial Consolidation – Merging fragmented budgets could curb corruption linked to parallel cash flows, allowing better public‑fund oversight.

## Risks and Criticisms

1. Militarisation of Power – Elevating Saad al‑Haftr to the top may be perceived as institutionalising a militia‑led regime, provoking resistance from western factions. 2. Political Imbalance – The power‑sharing formula hinges on fragile compromises; any perceived concession could reignite hostilities. 3. Resource Exploitation Concerns – Critics warn that foreign oil firms might reap disproportionate benefits without guaranteeing equitable revenue distribution. 4. Legal and Human‑Rights Obstacles – Existing sanctions and documented abuses in eastern‑controlled areas could delay project approvals and attract international scrutiny. 5. Geopolitical Pushback – Some regional powers view the U.S.‑led initiative as a strategic encroachment, potentially undermining broader diplomatic support.

## Future Outlook and Implementation Prospects

The plan’s success depends on several critical variables. First, convincing armed groups to accept a central authority without sacrificing their economic interests is essential. Second, close coordination with the United Nations is required to ensure the legitimacy of forthcoming elections. Third, maintaining a secure environment throughout the transition period is vital; any resurgence of armed conflict could collapse the agreement. Finally, the willingness of oil companies to adhere to strict governance and transparency standards will determine whether projected production gains translate into tangible benefits for Libyan citizens. If these conditions are met, Libya could experience a significant economic turnaround and reclaim its status as a major African oil exporter. Conversely, failure to address political grievances and human‑rights concerns may render the proposal a short‑lived diplomatic experiment.