Hormuz Strait Shipping Disruption Persists Until Completion of 80 Mines Hormuz Clearance

## Introduction Hormuz shipping disruption continues for an indefinite period, despite the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran to de-escalate the conflict, due to the presence of around 80 Hormuz mines in the center of the Hormuz maritime route, necessitating urgent Hormuz mine clearance operations to resume normal vessel traffic. The independent tanker owners association Intertanko confirmed that these Iran Hormuz mines are a major obstacle to restoring normal navigation in the strait, through which around 20% of global oil used to flow daily.

## Impact of Hormuz Mines on the Global Hormuz Maritime Route Iran planted Hormuz mines in the traffic separation scheme in the center of the Hormuz Strait, a system in place between Iran and Oman since 1968, to restrict the movement of tankers and other vessels during the conflict. This action left around 20,000 seafarers stuck on both sides of the channel, although some ships managed to sneak through at night near the Omani coast with their transmitters off and with US assistance. Others paid to travel through Iranian waters in an arrangement nicknamed "Tehran's tollbooth". The standard central route through the Hormuz Strait used to allow around 130 ships per day to cross, making it a vital artery for global trade.

## Practical Challenges for Hormuz Mine Clearance and Navigation Resumption Phil Belcher, marine director at Intertanko, confirmed that Hormuz mine clearance will take a long time due to the large number of mines spread across the center of the strait. The alternative route near the Omani coast also carries high risks, as it is located close to rocks, increasing the risk of vessels running aground. In addition, congestion of ships in the narrow sections of the strait raises collision risks, especially with Iran's reported signal jamming during the conflict, which disabled ships' navigation and positioning systems, leaving them effectively sailing blind. Estimates indicate that nearly 600 vessels are still anchored in the Gulf since February, which will worsen congestion in the Hormuz maritime route. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyd's List, stated that the current situation is "uncharted territory", and he does not expect navigation in the strait to return to normal this year.

## Economic Impact of Hormuz Strait Shipping Disruption on Global Trade The Hormuz shipping disruption poses a direct threat to global oil supply chains, as the strait historically carried around 20% of the world's oil consumption. The shipping industry still remembers the disruption caused in 2021 when the container ship Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for a week, leaving almost 600 vessels stranded at the canal's entrances. Any collision, grounding or sinking of a vessel in the Hormuz Strait currently would exacerbate the global trade crisis and significantly increase shipping costs, negatively impacting the economies of all countries that import oil and goods via the strait.

## Comparison Between Current Navigation Status and Future of the Hormuz Maritime Route Belcher compared the current situation in the Hormuz Strait to a highway where the middle road is closed and only the hard shoulder is being used. The shipping industry needs to reopen the central route to accommodate the usual volume of traffic safely. Gulf navigation challenges will continue until Hormuz mine clearance operations are fully completed, and the future of the Hormuz maritime route depends on the stability of the regional security situation and Iran's commitment not to plant new mines in the strait. The shipping industry is cautiously waiting to see if the ceasefire in the strait will hold, with warnings that any return to fighting will significantly increase navigation risks.