Can Ukraine Deprive Russia of Its 'Black Gold' by Striking Moscow Oil Refineries?

## Introduction In the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, strategic targets have expanded beyond frontline zones deep into Russian territory. Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries in Moscow and its outskirts have intensified since early 2026, aiming to cripple Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts. But what drives this strategy, and how is it reshaping the lives of ordinary Russians? Can Kyiv truly deprive Moscow of its 'black gold'?

## Are Russian Oil Refineries Becoming Legitimate Military Targets? Since the beginning of 2026, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries—including the Moscow refinery in Kapotnya, just 15 kilometers from the Kremlin—have become more frequent and precise. This refinery is a critical hub for the region's energy needs, supplying fuel for industrial activities, airports, and daily life in the capital. According to James Henderson, an expert at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, these strikes aim to undermine Russia’s financial capacity to sustain the war while creating an internal economic crisis.

## The Human Cost: Fuel Shortages and Rising Prices The repeated attacks have led to severe fuel shortages, with over ten Russian regions reporting disruptions in petrol station supplies. Long queues have formed at gas stations nationwide, not just in areas bordering Ukraine but across the country. Maximilian Hess, founder of Emmertina Advisory and author of Economic Warfare: Ukraine and the Global Conflict Between Russia and the West, notes that fuel prices have surged despite government subsidies, directly impacting the cost of living for Russian citizens.

## Why Target Oil Refineries? The Strategic and Symbolic Dimensions Beyond economic impact, these strikes carry a powerful political message. Striking refineries in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, as well as the Antipinsky refinery in the Urals, demonstrates that the war is affecting ordinary Russians. Targeting Crimea—annexed by Russia in 2014—adds symbolic weight, undermining Moscow’s control over the peninsula.

## The Technology Behind Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Technological advancements in Ukraine’s drone arsenal have significantly enhanced the range and precision of these attacks. Drones now reach farther than ever before, enabling Kyiv to strike deep into Russia’s oil infrastructure. Petras Katinas, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), highlights that these advancements are a key factor behind the increased intensity of strikes since early 2026.

## Can Depleting Russian Oil Reserves End the War? While these strikes increase economic pressure on Russia, they are unlikely to directly end the war. Russia possesses vast oil reserves, and Western sanctions have not yet crippled its war machine. However, sustained attacks may fuel public discontent, potentially weakening domestic support for Putin’s war.